Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) slowed to 2.25% year-on-year (y/y) in real terms in the third quarter (Q3) of 2022, a decline from 4.03% recorded a year ago.
The Q3 rate also represents the slowest GDP growth in the last six quarters was fuelled by low productivity occasioned by persistent decline in the oil sector and low growth in key non-oil sectors.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), in its Q3 GDP report released yesterday, said: “The reduction in growth is attributable to the base effects of the recession and the challenging economic conditions that have impeded productive activities.”
The report showed that the Q3 2022 growth fell by 1.78% points from the 4.03% growth rate recorded in Q3 2021, and decreased by 1.29% points relative to 3.54% in Q2 2022.
The NBS report further revealed that quarter-on-quarter (q/q), real GDP grew at 9.68% in Q3, reflecting a higher economic activity than the preceding quarter.
In the quarter under review, the report put aggregate GDP at N52.26 trillion in nominal terms, higher than N45.11 trillion a year ago, indicating a year-on-year nominal growth rate of 15.83%.
“The nominal GDP growth rate in Q3 2022 was higher relative to the 15.41 per cent growth recorded in the third quarter of 2021 and higher compared to the 15.03 per cent growth recorded in the preceding quarter,” the NBS said.
Oil sector
In the quarter under review, the oil sector recorded an average daily oil production of 1.20 million barrels per day (mbpd), was lower than the 1.57mbpd y/y or 0.37mbpd, and also lower than the Q2 2022 1.43mbpd, down by 0.24mbpd.
As a result, “The real growth of the oil sector was –22.67 per cent (year-on-year) in Q3 2022 indicating a decrease of 11.94 per cent points relative to the rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2021. Growth also decreased by 10.91 per cent points when compared to Q2 2022 which was –11.77 per cent,” the report said.
On quarter-on-quarter (q/q) basis the oil sector growth rate was -1.80%, contributed about 5.66% to the total real GDP in Q3, down from 7.49% y/y and 6.33% q/q respectively.
The reduction in growth is attributable to the base effects of the recession and the challenging economic conditions that have impeded productive activities.
Non-oil sector
However, the non-oil sector in Q3 grew by 4.27% in real terms but lower by 1.18% y/y and 0.50% q/q.
Growth in Q3 was driven mainly by:
- Information and Communication (Telecommunication) – growth rate 10.53%, GDP contribution 15.35%;
- Trade; Transportation (Road Transport) – growth rate 41.59%, GDP contribution 1.34%;
- Financial and Insurance (Financial Institutions) – growth rate 12.7%, GDP contribution 3.49%;
- Agriculture (Crop Production) – growth rate 1.34%, GDP contribution 29.67%;
- Real Estate – growth rate 4.56%, GDP contribution 5.41%;
- Manufacturing – growth rate -1.91%, GDP contribution 8.59%;
- Education – growth rate 1.1%, GDP contribution 1.68%;
- Arts, Entertainment, Recreation – growth rate 7.79%, GDP contribution 0.19%
In real terms, the non-oil sector contributed 94.34% to the GDP, higher than the share recorded a year ago at 92.51%, also higher than the Q2 93.67%, while the oil sector contributed 5.66% to the aggregate real GDP for the period.
