By Tochukwu Bliss, Abuja
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Governor, Olayemi Cardoso, has expressed optimism that the country’s headline inflation will continue to decelerate following ongoing monetary and fiscal policy reforms.
His confidence is buoyed by Nigeria’s headline inflation rate, which fell for the sixth consecutive month in September, easing to 18.02%, its lowest level in three years.
According to new data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Core inflation slowed to 19.53%, while food inflation moderated to 16.87% over the same period.
The CBN Governor at the ongoing Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group, was quoted as saying: “We expect inflation to continue to trend downward in the near term, supported by tight monetary conditions, a stable naira, and increased food supply.”
Mr. Cardoso believes that the sustained decline marks a significant reversal from the inflationary peak of 34.19% in June 2024, reflecting the impact of the CBN’s decisive monetary policy actions to restore price stability and anchor expectations.
We expect inflation to continue to trend downward in the near term, supported by tight monetary conditions, a stable naira, and increased food supply.
Recall that in response to those pressures, the CBN raised its Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) from 18.75% to 27.50% through a sustained tightening cycle, while increasing the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) to 50% for commercial banks and 16% for merchant banks.
At its September 2025 meeting, the Bank eased slightly, lowering the MPR by 50 basis points to 27% and the CRR for commercial banks to 45%, while maintaining a firm anti-inflationary stance.
The monetary tightening, the apex bank noted, was complemented by reforms in the foreign exchange market, including the exchange rate unification and enhanced transparency to improve price discovery in the market.
It added that the naira has since stabilized, with the spread between the official and Bureau de Change (BDC) rates narrowing to below 2.0%. Improved liquidity in the FX market has helped reduce the pass through of imported inflation and reinforced price stability.
Foreign reserves remain above $43 billion, providing more than eleven months of forward import cover, supported by sustained forex inflows.
The CBN therefore reiterated its commitment to strengthening the disinflation trend, supported by a combination of exchange rate stability, durable improvements in food supply, and continued moderation in petroleum product prices.
