By Izuchukwu Mayor, Lagos
Spurred by current production of 1.65 million barrels per day (mbpd), the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), is optimistic that 2.5mbpd by 2027 is possible, given current reforms in the nation’s oil and gas sector.
The NUPRC Commission Chief Executive (CCE), Gbenga Komolafe, today, reiterated this optimism today, while speaking on: “Nigeria’s Energy Future and the Role of NUPRC in Driving Upstream Oil and Gas Industry’s Rebound,” at The Nigeria Association of Energy Correspondents (NAEC) Conference 2025.
The NAEC conference was themed: “Nigeria’s Energy Future: Exploring Opportunities and Addressing Risks for Sustainable Growth,” and was held at the Eko Hotel & Suites, in Lagos.
According to Mr Komolafe the rebound being witnessed in Nigeria’s upstream sector “is not by chance; it is the outcome of deliberate regulatory design, anchored on transparency, efficiency and inclusiveness.”
He added that “The Commission’s strategic vision aligns with Nigeria’s broader economic goals and global sustainability commitments.
To this end, he traced the spike in Nigeria’s production accretion primarily to the passage of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) 2021, which he said heralded “a new era of regulatory clarity, transparency and predictability.”
He opined that “The Act provided the solid foundation upon which the Commission has built the framework for the industry’s recovery and growth.”
This is even as globally, traditional hydrocarbon investments now compete with clean and renewable energy sources, as nations seek to balance growth with decarbonisation.
Noting that these developments presented both a challenge and an opportunity, he recalled that upon the inauguration of the NUPRC four years ago, the Commission “inherited a complex landscape defined by declining investments, waning exploration activity and operational uncertainties.”
Regulatory interventions
Undeterred, he said: “The NUPRC has implemented a series of transformative regulatory interventions designed to reposition Nigeria’s upstream sector for competitiveness, resilience and sustainable growth.”
He added that “Through these efforts, the Commission is not only driving the rebound of the oil and gas industry, but also shaping Nigeria’s long-term energy future.”
He continued: “Yet, as the International Energy Agency (IEA) reminds us, oil and gas will continue to play a critical role in meeting global energy demand for decades to come, particularly in developing economies.
“The first major step was to enhance data transparency and accessibility. Investment decisions in oil and gas are inherently data-driven and without reliable geological information, even the most promising basins remain unattractive.
“To address this, the Commission embarked on an ambitious campaign to acquire, reprocess and digitize seismic data across frontier and producing basins.
“Over 17,000 line-kilometres of 2D and 28,000 square kilometres of 3D seismic data have been reprocessed to global standards, significantly reducing exploration risks and unlocking new investment frontiers.
“In addition, the Commission introduced a fully digitalized and transparent licensing process. During the 2024 mini-bid round, human interface was minimized and transparency maximised.”
Additionally, he noted that with the Federal Government’s support, signature bonuses were reviewed downward from about $100 million to $10 million, thereby allowing investors to commit more resources to field development.
“This single decision has strengthened investor confidence, encouraged early production and reinforced Nigeria’s reputation as an open and competitive upstream jurisdiction.
“More so, the Commission also prioritized production optimization and recovery enhancement. By reviewing field development plans, supporting brownfield optimization and enabling the re-entry of shut-in wells, the NUPRC has facilitated renewed activity across mature assets.
“These interventions are projected to deliver incremental volumes exceeding one million barrels of oil per day, a key milestone toward achieving the national production target of 2.5 million BOPD by 2027.”
The rebound being witnessed in Nigeria’s upstream sector is not by chance; it is the outcome of deliberate regulatory design, anchored on transparency, efficiency and inclusiveness.
Secure infrastructure
The NUPRC boss further argued that a sustainable rebound also demands secure infrastructure and credible measurement systems.
“To this end, the Commission has collaborated with security agencies, private contractors and community stakeholders in implementing the Upstream Measurement Regulation and the Advance Cargo Declaration Regulation.
“The result is a remarkable 90 percent reduction in crude oil theft from over 102,000 barrels per day in 2021 to 9,600 barrels per day as of September 2025.
“Equally transformative is our work in host community development. By implementing the PIA’s Host Communities Development Trust (HCDT) provisions, the Commission has successfully inaugurated over 90 Trusts across the Niger Delta,
ensuring that development funds flow directly to communities. “This model not only secures local ownership, but also guarantees peace, stability and continuity in production, key pillars for sustained energy security.”
Mr Komolafe also noted that these upstream policies are further buoyed by Nigeria’s gas agenda as part of the “Decade of Gas” and the nation’s energy transition pathway.
“Natural gas remains our most reliable transition fuel, a catalyst for industrialization, power generation and clean energy substitution.
“By promoting gas monetization, flare elimination and gas-based investments, the Commission is reinforcing Nigeria’s commitment to a just and balanced energy transition. Globally, the context reinforces this direction.
“The IEA projects that upstream investment will surpass $580 billion in 2025, marking a steady recovery from pandemic lows.
While renewables will continue to grow, hydrocarbons will remain central to industrialization, particularly in emerging economies like Nigeria.”
Accordingly, he asserted that “Our task therefore, is to ensure that this production is done efficiently, transparently and sustainably, consistent with international best practice.”
Amid these developments, Mr Komolafe charged the media and NAEC members in particular, to uphold ethics and professionalism, saying: “…in this evolving energy landscape, the media remains a vital stakeholder. Information is power and in the energy sector, accurate reporting shapes perceptions, influences investments and builds credibility.
“Responsible reporting strengthens investor confidence and preserves national reputation; misinformation on the other hand, can distort progress and discourage the very investments our nation seeks to attract.”
