.World Bank seeks green development to check migration
Victor Uzoho
The World Bank has revealed that climate change, which has continued to drive migration, could force over 216 million people across the six world regions to return to their home countries by 2050.
A report, Groundswell Part 2, released yesterday (Monday) by the World Bank, projected hotspots of internal climate migration to emerge as early as 2030, and continue to spread and intensify in rural, urban, and coastal systems by 2050.
The report, which is an update of an earlier report, Groundswell Part 1, explained that if immediate and concerted action is taken to reduce global emissions, and support green, inclusive, and resilient development, the scale of climate migration could be reduced by as much as 80 per cent.
The updated report includes projections and analysis for three regions: East Asia and the Pacific, North Africa, and Eastern Europe and Central Asia. It builds on the novel and pioneering modelling approach of the previous Groundswell report from 2018, which covered sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Latin America.
The two reports provide for the first time, a global picture of the potential scale of internal climate migration across the six regions, allowing for a better understanding of how slow-onset climate change impacts, population dynamics, and development contexts shape mobility trends.
It identified climate change as a powerful driver of internal migration because of its impacts on people’s livelihoods and loss of liveability in highly exposed locations.
According to the report, by 2050, sub-Saharan Africa could see as many as 86 million internal climate migrants; East Asia and the Pacific, 49 million; South Asia, 40 million; North Africa, 19 million; Latin America, 17 million; and Eastern Europe and Central Asia, 5 million.
Commenting, Vice President of Sustainable Development, World Bank, Juergen Voegele, said: “The new Groundswell report builds on the work of the first, modelling three additional regions, namely East Asia and the Pacific, North Africa, and Eastern Europe and Central Asia—to provide a global estimate of up to 216 million climate migrants by 2050 across all six regions.
“It’s important to note that this projection is not cast in stone. If countries start now to reduce greenhouse gases, close development gaps, restore vital ecosystems, and help people adapt, internal climate migration could be reduced by up to 80 per cent—to 44 million people by 2050.
“Without these actions, the report predicts that “hotspots” of climate migration will emerge as soon as within the next decade and intensify by 2050, as people leave places that can no longer sustain them and go to areas that offer opportunity. For instance, people are increasingly moving to cities, and we find that climate-related challenges such as water scarcity, declining crop productivity, and sea-level rise play a role in this migration.
“Even places which could become hotspots of climate out-migration because of increased impacts will likely still support large numbers of people. Meanwhile, receiving areas are often ill-prepared to receive additional internal climate migrants and provide them with basic services or use their skills.”
If countries start now to reduce greenhouse gases, close development gaps, restore vital ecosystems, and help people adapt, internal climate migration could be reduced by up to 80 per cent—to 44 million people by 2050.
Voegele noted that the Groundswell report is a stark reminder of the human tolls of climate change, particularly on the world’s poorest, those who are contributing the least to its causes, and also clearly lays out a path for countries to address some of the key factors that are causing climate-driven migration.
He said the trajectory of internal climate migration in the next half-century depends on global collective action on climate change and development in the next few years.
“What will it take to slow it? First and foremost, early action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to reduce the climate pressures that drive internal climate migration. This must be a global effort and it must happen now.
“At the same time, it will be important to recognize that not all migration can be prevented and that, if well-managed, shifts in population distribution can become part of an effective adaptation strategy, allowing people to rise out of poverty and build resilient livelihoods,” Voegele added
By deploying a scenario-based approach, the report explores potential future outcomes, which can help decision-makers plan ahead, and allows for the identification of internal climate in- and out- migration hotspots. These are areas from which people are expected to move due to increasing water scarcity, declining crop productivity, and sea-level rise, as well as urban and rural areas with better conditions to build new livelihoods.
The report made a series of policy recommendations that can help slow the factors driving climate migration and prepare for expected flows including reducing global emissions and making every effort to meet the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement.
Also, embedding internal climate migration in far-sighted green, resilient, and inclusive development planning, and preparing for each phase of migration as an adaptation strategy, can result in positive development outcomes.
It also called for investments to aid better understanding of the drivers of internal climate migration to help inform well-targeted policies.
